[ARTICLE] Predicting seizures in pregnant women with epilepsy: Development and external validation of a prognostic model – Full Text

Abstract

Background

Seizures are the main cause of maternal death in women with epilepsy, but there are no tools for predicting seizures in pregnancy. We set out to develop and validate a prognostic model, using information collected during the antenatal booking visit, to predict seizure risk at any time in pregnancy and until 6 weeks postpartum in women with epilepsy on antiepileptic drugs.

Methods and findings

We used datasets of a prospective cohort study (EMPiRE) of 527 pregnant women with epilepsy on medication recruited from 50 hospitals in the UK (4 November 2011–17 August 2014). The model development cohort comprised 399 women whose antiepileptic drug doses were adjusted based on clinical features only; the validation cohort comprised 128 women whose drug dose adjustments were informed by serum drug levels. The outcome was epileptic (non-eclamptic) seizure captured using diary records. We fitted the model using LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression, and reported the performance using C-statistic (scale 0–1, values > 0.5 show discrimination) and calibration slope (scale 0–1, values near 1 show accuracy) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We determined the net benefit (a weighted sum of true positive and false positive classifications) of using the model, with various probability thresholds, to aid clinicians in making individualised decisions regarding, for example, referral to tertiary care, frequency and intensity of monitoring, and changes in antiepileptic medication. Seizures occurred in 183 women (46%, 183/399) in the model development cohort and in 57 women (45%, 57/128) in the validation cohort. The model included age at first seizure, baseline seizure classification, history of mental health disorder or learning difficulty, occurrence of tonic-clonic and non-tonic-clonic seizures in the 3 months before pregnancy, previous admission to hospital for seizures during pregnancy, and baseline dose of lamotrigine and levetiracetam. The C-statistic was 0.79 (95% CI 0.75, 0.84). On external validation, the model showed good performance (C-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.66, 0.85; calibration slope 0.93, 95% CI 0.44, 1.41) but with imprecise estimates. The EMPiRE model showed the highest net proportional benefit for predicted probability thresholds between 12% and 99%. Limitations of this study include the varied gestational ages of women at recruitment, retrospective patient recall of seizure history, potential variations in seizure classification, the small number of events in the validation cohort, and the clinical utility restricted to decision-making thresholds above 12%. The model findings may not be generalisable to low- and middle-income countries, or when information on all predictors is not available.

Conclusions

The EMPiRE model showed good performance in predicting the risk of seizures in pregnant women with epilepsy who are prescribed antiepileptic drugs. Integration of the tool within the antenatal booking visit, deployed as a simple nomogram, can help to optimise care in women with epilepsy.

Author summary

Why was this study done?

  • Pregnant women with epilepsy are at increased risk of death and complications from seizures; their high-risk status during pregnancy and after childbirth is often not recognised.
  • Knowledge of an individual’s risk of seizures could help healthcare professionals and pregnant women make decisions regarding management.
  • To our knowledge, there are currently no models to predict risk of seizures in pregnant women with epilepsy on medication.

What did the researchers do and find?

  • We developed the EMPiRE model to predict the risk of seizures in pregnancy and up to 6 weeks after delivery in women with epilepsy on medication whose drug doses were managed based on clinical findings; we validated the model in a separate group of women whose dose management was based on drug levels in the blood.
  • The model discriminated well between those with and without seizures, with good agreement between predicted and observed risks across both low- and high-risk women.
  • The model is clinically useful for decision-making where the threshold of choice for seizure risk is between 12% and 99%.
  • The model showed promising transportability to the validation cohort.

What do these findings mean?

  • The EMPiRE prediction model can be used by healthcare professionals to identify pregnant women at high risk of seizures and to plan early referral for specialist input; determine the need for close monitoring in pregnancy, labour, and after childbirth; and assess antiepileptic drug management.
  • The performance of the model is unlikely to vary with the antiepileptic drug dose management strategy.

 

Continue —> Predicting seizures in pregnant women with epilepsy: Development and external validation of a prognostic model

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